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Content Provider | IEEE Xplore Digital Library |
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Author | Karakus, O. Kuruoglu, E.E. Altinkaya, M.A. |
Copyright Year | 2015 |
Description | Author affiliation: ISTI, Pisa, Italy (Kuruoglu, E.E.) || Elektrik ve Elektron. Muhendisligi Bolumu, Izmir Yuksek Teknol. Enstitusu, Izmir, Turkey (Karakus, O.; Altinkaya, M.A.) |
Abstract | Wind energy is one of the preferred energy generation methods because wind is an important renewable energy source. Prediction of wind speed in a time period, is important due to the one-to-one relationship between wind speed and wind power. Due to the nonlinear character of the wind speed data, nonlinear methods are known to produce better results compared to linear time series methods like Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) in predicting in a period longer than 12 hours. A method is proposed to apply a 48-hour ahead wind speed prediction by using the past wind speed measurements of the Çeşme Peninsula. We proposed to model wind speed data with a Polynomial AR (PAR) model. Coefficients of the models are estimated via linear Least Squares (LS) method and up to 48 hours ahead wind speed prediction is calculated for different models. In conclusion, a better performance is observed for higher than 12-hour ahead wind speed predictions of wind speed data which is modelled with PAR model, than AR and ARMA models. |
Starting Page | 645 |
Ending Page | 648 |
File Size | 303564 |
Page Count | 4 |
File Format | |
ISBN | 9781467373869 |
DOI | 10.1109/SIU.2015.7129907 |
Language | English |
Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) |
Publisher Date | 2015-05-16 |
Publisher Place | Turkey |
Access Restriction | Subscribed |
Rights Holder | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) |
Subject Keyword | PAR AR Wind speed long term wind speed prediction Time series analysis nonlinear time series Predictive models Wind power generation Data models ARMA Forecasting Autoregressive processes |
Content Type | Text |
Resource Type | Article |
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