NDLI: Application of Time Series Based SVM Model on Next-Day Electricity Price Forecasting Under Deregulated Power Market

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Wei Sun Jian-Chang Lu Ming Meng
Copyright Year	2006
Description	Author affiliation: Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding (Wei Sun; Jian-Chang Lu; Ming Meng)
Abstract	With the development of power markets, electricity price especially the market clearing price (MCP) forecasting is becoming more and more important in such new competitive markets since the MCP forecasting is the basis of decision making for participants in electricity market. In this paper the problem of modeling market clearing price forecasting in deregulated markets is studied. And electricity price forecasting with support vector machines based on time series is provided. Except considering MCP price influential factors such as previous competitive load, making-up price, competitive generating capacity etc, the past price data which are time series style or not have been included as attributes in input parameters. That is to introduce the concept of time series into our presented model. Based on these influential factors, the corresponding SVM forecasting model is presented. The proposed algorithm is more robust and reliable as compared to traditional approach and neural networks. The performance of our proposed modeling approach has been tested using practical electricity market and compared with traditional neural network. The satisfactory results with better generalization capability and lower prediction error can be obtained
Sponsorship	IEEE Syst., Man and Cybernetics Hebei Univ.
Starting Page	2373
Ending Page	2378
File Size	259586
Page Count	6
File Format	PDF
ISBN	1424400619
DOI	10.1109/ICMLC.2006.258728
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2006-08-13
Publisher Place	China
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Support vector machines Predictive models Economic forecasting Electricity supply industry deregulation Power markets Electricity supply industry Neural networks Decision making Robustness Testing electricity market MCP forecasting SVM time series
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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